A modified logit model for time series with an application to the pricing behaviour of manufacturing firms in Australia

The modified logit model (Amemiya and Nold, 1975) is generalised to the case where the error term is autocorrelated. The asymptotic distribution (as n →∞ and T →∞) of a feasible GLS estimator of β is derived. Tests of linear restrictions on β and the significance of ρ are presented. The results of the applied work suggest that the factors which explain the pricing behaviour of manufacturing firms, as reported in the tendency survey conducted by the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry and the Westpac Banking Corporation, include historical inflation rates of up to 7 quarters and capacity utilisation. First version received: March 2001/Final version received: July 2002 RID="*" ID="*"  The first draft of this paper was written while the author was on study leave at the Department of Econometrics, University of Sydney, Australia.     

A review and validation of overall survival extrapolation in health technology assessments of cancer immunotherapy by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence: how did the initial best estimate compare to trial data subsequently made available?

Background: Validation of overall survival (OS) extrapolations of immune-checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) during the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) Single Technology Assessment (STA) process is limited due to data still maturing at the time of submission. Inaccurate extrapolation may lead to inappropriate decision-making. The availability of more mature trial data facilitates a retrospective analysis of the plausibility and validity of initial extrapolations. This study compares these extrapolations to subsequently available longer-term data.

Methods: A systematic search of completed NICE appraisals of ICIs from March 2000 to December 2017 was performed. A targeted search was also undertaken to procure published OS data from the pivotal clinical trials for each identified STA made available post-submission to NICE. Initial Kaplan-Meier curves and associated extrapolations from NICE documentation were extracted to compare the accuracy of OS projections versus the most mature data.

Results: The review identified 11 STAs, of which 10 provided OS data upon submission to NICE. The extrapolations undertaken considered parametric or piecewise survival models. Additional data cut-offs provided a mean of 18 months of OS beyond the end of the original data. Initial extrapolations typically under-estimated OS from the most mature data cut-off by 0.4–2.7%, depending on the choice of assessment method and use of the manufacturer- or ERG-preferred extrapolation.

Conclusion: Long-term extrapolation of OS is required for NICE STAs based on initial immature OS data. The results of this study demonstrate that the initial OS extrapolations employed by manufacturers and ERGs generally predicted OS reasonably well when compared to more mature data (when available), although on average they appeared to underestimate OS. This review and validation shows that, while the choice of OS extrapolation is uncertain, the methods adopted are generally aligned with later-published follow-up data and appear appropriate for informing HTA decisions.     

CONSTRUING ORGANIZATIONAL TEXTURE IN YOUNG ENTREPRENEURIAL FIRMS

In a young entrepreneurial firm, two developmental processes are identified. One reflects the emergence of a social network whilst the other reflects the emergence of a task domain. The concept of ‘organizational dialogue’ is introduced to describe the action strategies through which these two processes are connected. The resulting textures may critically be examined to produce ‘process’ knowledge. It is argued that organizational theory can benefit from more work of this kind.     

Ombudsman schemes in the United Kingdom's financial sector: The insurance ombudsman,the banking ombudsman,and the building societies ombudsman

The problems facing consumers in pursuing complaints against suppliers through the courts are well known and have given rise to the development of alternative strategies. This paper considers the development and use of one such strategy — the ombudsman — in dealing with the complaints of consumers against insurers, banks and building societies. The decisions to create these schemes can be seen against a background of the radical changes in the financial markets during the 1980s. However, the practice of the different ombudsmen is also influenced by the history, rules, practices and commercial contexts of their respective industries. It is argued, for instance, that the ombudsmen have developed standards of fairness which enable them to step outside established law and practice. However, the extent to which each is willing to do this may depend on the history and legal context of the relationships which a particular sector has had with its customers.

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Ombudsmann-Regelungen im Finanzsektor Grobritanniens: Die Ombudspersonen für Versicherungen, für Banken und für Wohnbaugenossenschaften

Zusammenfassung Die Schwierigkeiten, die Konsumenten haben, wenn sie Beschwerden gegen Anbieter auf gerichtlichem Wege klären lassen wollen, sind gut bekannt und waren Anla\ für die Entwicklung alternativer Strategien. Der Beitrag behandelt eine dieser Alternativen — den Ombudsmann — bei der Behandlung von Verbraucherbeschwerden gegenüber Versicherern, Banken und Wohnbaugenossen-schaften. Die Entscheidungen, die zur Schaffung dieser Regelung geführt haben, sind vor allem vor dem Hintergrund der starken Veränderungen auf den Finanzmärkten in den 80er Jahren zu sehen. Dabei wird das praktische Vorgehen der Ombudspersonen von der Entstehungsgeschichte, von Gewohnheiten und Praktiken und vom wirtschaftlichen Zusammenhang ihrer jeweiligen Branche beeinflu\t. So haben die Ombudspersonen zum Beispiel Richtlinien für Fairne\ entwickelt, die ihnen auch Möglichkeiten au\erhalb der etablierten Bereiche des Rechts und der Praxis eröffnen. Allerdings hängt die Bereitschaft des einzelnen Ombudsmannes, solche Möglichkeiten zu ergreifen, von der Geschichte und dem rechtlichen Kontext der Beziehungen ab, die seine Branche mit ihren Kunden gehabt hat.

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The authors would like to thank VW-Stiftung which funded the project, of which an earlier version of this study formed a part: Southern Extension of the EC, Financial Services and Consumer Protection; as well as Magda D'Ingeo and Katrina Wilson, both of Brunel University.     

Book Reviews

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Hal Hill (ed.), Indonesia's New Order; The Dynamics of Socio-Economic Transformation, Allen and Unwin, Sydney, 1994, pp. xxxv + 364. Paper: A$29.95.

J. Thomas Lindblad (ed.), New Challenges in the Modern Economic History of Indonesia: Proceedings of the First Conference on Indonesia 's Modern Economic History, Jakarta, October 1–4, 1991, Programme of Indonesian Studies, Leiden University, Leiden, 1993, pp. viii + 306.

Thee Kian Wie, Explorations in Indonesia's Economic History, Lembaga Penerbit Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Indonesia, Jakarta, 1994, pp. xv + 187.

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Effendi Pasandaran, Agus Pakpahan, Edwin B. Oyer and Norman Uphoff (eds), Poverty Alleviation with Sustainable Agricultural and Rural Development in Indonesia, Published jointly by the Center for Agro-Socioeconomic Research (CASER) (Bogor), and the Cornell International Institute for Food, Agriculture and Development (CIIFAD) (Ithaca), Bogor 1992, pp. vi + 233.

Eric Thorbecke and Theodore van der Pluijm, Rural Indonesia: Socio-Economic Development in a Changing Environment, IFAD (International Fund for Agricultural Development) Studies in Rural Development no. 3, New York University Press, New York, 1993, pp. xxix + 360.

Niels Mulder, Inside Southeast Asia: Thai, Javanese and Filipino Interpretations of Everyday Life, Duang Kamol, Bangkok, 1992, pp. xiii + 178.

M.C. Ricklefs, War, Culture and Economy in Java, 1677–1726: Asian and European Imperialism in the Early Kartasura Period, ASAA Southeast Asia Publications Series no. 24, Allen & Unwin, Sydney, 1993, pp. xi + 425. A$29.95.

Ken Young, Islamic Peasants and the State: The 1908 Anti-Tax Rebellion in West Sumatra, Yale Southeast Asia Studies Monograph 40, Yale Center for International and Area Studies, New Haven, pp. xviii + 361.

Saya Shiraishi and Takashi Shiraishi (eds), The Japanese in Colonial Southeast Asia, Translation Series, Translation of Contemporary Japanese Scholarship on Southeast Asia, vol. 3, Southeast Asia Program, Cornell University, Ithaca, 1993, pp. 172.     

A Closer Look at the Relation between GARCH and Stochastic Autoregressive Volatility

We show that, for three common SARV models, fitting a minimummean square linear filter is equivalent to fitting a GARCH model.This suggests that GARCH models may be useful for filtering,forecasting, and parameter estimation in stochastic volatilitysettings. To investigate, we use simulations to evaluate howthe three SARV models and their associated GARCH filters performunder controlled conditions and then we use daily currency andequity index returns to evaluate how the models perform in arisk management application. Although the GARCH models produceless precise forecasts than the SARV models in the simulations,it is not clear that the performance differences are large enoughto be economically meaningful. Consistent with this view, wefind that the GARCH and SARV models perform comparably in testsof conditional value-at-risk estimates using the actual data.     

The coexistence of transaction and relational marketing: Insights from the Chinese business context

Transaction and relational approaches to marketing have been promoted as alternative forms but recent evidence suggests that they may coexist. We explore this in the context of China. If firms operating in a highly relational society, such as China, exhibit transactional behavior, these two approaches must be compatible. We argue that Chinese values give rise to business practices consistent with both transactional and relational perspectives. These are summarized in six propositions for research. Theory building and managerial practice could benefit from thinking in terms of how elements from the two perspectives can be brought together rather than remain as alternatives.